Azadi March: Khan's Last Over

Photo Credits: NY Times

Yesterday Imran Khan delivered a speech, after much anticipation, in which he called for a Civil Disobedience Movement. The response across the spectrum of Pakistani public and politicians has been mixed to negative. It was certainly an unexpected development and to most of the people, including Khan’s supporters, it didn’t make much sense. Instead of this bewildering announcement, Imran Khan was expected to announce the resignations of PTI members in the assemblies.

Reportedly, Imran Khan had the resignations in mind but when he discussed it with other PTI leaders before delivering the speech, he was pressurized by them to abandon this approach. The PTI members, mostly those who were in the assemblies, were of the opinion that by resigning they would lose the significance they have as representatives of the people, especially in comparison to the PAT. Afterwards there was a disagreement as to what should be the next step. The option of marching towards the Red Zone was discarded by Imran Khan. The only thing the leadership could come up with was Civil Disobedience, which was originally suggested by Imran Khan and rest of the leaders endorsed it. [1]

Civil Disobedience in this era seems a senseless idea. In the past, such movements were mainly aimed at exerting pressure on colonial powers. Gandhi is seen as a champion of Civil Disobedience, which was characterized at that time as a non violent form of resistance. Such movements not only aim at weakening the writ of the government but are also seen as a threat to the stability of the state because Civil Disobedience is essentially an Anarchist movement. So, in the context of current scenario, this is certainly not a good idea because although the government is allegedly illegitimate yet no one has anything against the state. Besides it is also quite impractical to defy laws without facing the harsh consequences which will not only weaken the PTI but will also debilitate the widespread support it enjoys among the masses.

But despite all the criticism, there are some effects of this announcement which might have been the reason why Imran Khan chose it. Civil Disobedience, being a heavy word in terms of political crisis, has brought the protests in the limelight through international media. It might force the world leaders to take notice of the situation and comment on it, which will immensely increase the pressure on the government. Moreover, this announcement might alarm the IMF which closely monitors the Pakistani economy because it has a stake in it. The only sensible reason for this announcement is probably that Imran Khan wanted to force the outside powers to put pressure on the government by bringing their interests at stake.

Besides, Khan has thrown the ball in Qadri’s court. PAT will have to make the first move as their deadline expires one day before the deadline set by PTI. On one hand it might deliver the first blow to the government, increasing the pressure and raising the probability that the government might capitulate. On the other hand, it will let PTI study the strengths and weaknesses of the government so that they will be able to plan their tactics for the showdown accordingly.

Two questions arise from this situation. Firstly, was there a better option for PTI? Since Imran Khan has been actively involved in politics for more than a decade and he has even more experienced politicians in his party, so assuming that they went for a worse option despite there being a better one doesn’t make much sense. However, some options apparently look better than a Civil Disobedience movement. Keeping in view that the aim was probably to make outside powers take notice of the situation, a massive hunger strike would have done the trick. There are thousands of people gathered at the site of protests. Turning it into a hunger strike camp would certainly have had a strong effect on the international media and the results would have been more favorable for PTI. Civil disobedience has legal consequences, hunger strike has none. Similarly, the public would have instead sympathized with the protesters instead of scorning them as is being done after the announcement of civil disobedience.

Secondly, what is Khan’s next move? The time is running out very fast and the pressure is mainly on his side. Currently PTI is waiting for a positive response from N-League as their deadline expires in a day. But if they didn’t receive a positive response, they will only have some limited options. The first option of course is to avoid further conflict and accept defeat with euphemistic words. This will certainly come at the price of the popularity of PTI and credibility of its leaders. Another option is to march on the Red Zone, as Imran Khan has already threatened. So far it looks like Khan will never go for it. According to some reports the number of policemen deployed for securing the Red Zone is almost equal to the number of protesters themselves. The bloodshed that will ensue will certainly have a detrimental effect on the popularity of the government, but it will come at a cost of many lives and subsequently Imran Khan’s decision will be blamed for it. Before that, Khan might also have to shoot the last arrow in his quiver, the resignations of PTI’s members of assemblies. This will boost support for him but will come at the cost of political power. In any case, there is only a slim chance that the government will fall. Instead of taking any radical step, PTI might resort to negotiations and settle for something less than the resignation of the Prime Minister.

1. Dawn News