Tuesday 16 September 2014

The Bedouin's Camel

There is an old fable which elderly people tell their grandchildren. It apparently originated in the Middle East but now it is a part of folklore in many cultures across the world. The story goes like this: a bedouin was travelling with his camel in a vast desert somewhere in Arabia. Night fell before he could reach any settlement or oasis and suddenly a strong sandstorm emerged out of nowhere. The bedouin quickly set up his tent and hid inside it to keep himself safe from the strong wind and piercing sand, while the camel stood outside. Camels are considered strong animals, perfect for the desert environment, and are known to withstand the strongest sandstorms without any cover or shelter. In fact it’s a common practice to hide behind a sitting camel to take refuge from storms. Anyhow, after a while the camel peeped into the tent and said,”the storm is very strong and the sand is stinging my eyes. Can I just keep my head inside your tent?” The bedouin couldn’t find any reason to deny the favor. So he allowed the camel to keep his head inside. After sometime, the camel spoke again,”the wind is getting stronger and my thin neck shakes every time a gust hits me. Can I just bring my neck inside?” The bedouin again couldn’t refuse and the camel brought his neck inside. After a while it spoke again,”look, my back has a huge hump on it and it stands in the way of the strong wind like a ship's sail. Every time a gust hits me I hardly keep myself from turning over. Can I just bring my hump inside?” The bedouin said,”but your hump is on your back. Bringing it in means bringing in your whole body.” The camel said,”no, I’ll keep my tail outside.” The bedouin couldn’t argue and allowed the camel in, with its tail hanging outside. It is said that in the end, the camel managed to get its tail inside too and since it was a large animal, it occupied all the space and eventually pushed the bedouin out of the tent into the sandstorm.

Since the insurgency against Assad began in Syria, the US has been acting like the bedouin’s camel. It started with indirectly supporting the ‘moderate’ Syrian rebels and now it’s conducting direct airstrikes on targets in Iraq. If the pattern remains the same, it will not take long before the US brings in its tail too i.e. ‘boots on the ground’.

Monday 1 September 2014

Azadi March: Between Devil and the Deep Blue Sea

The protests led by Tahir-ul-Qadri and Imran Khan are gradually turning into a rebellion. People have stormed the PM house twice, reportedly captured the state TV, and there have been numerous clashes between the police and the protesters [1]. The situation aggravated after both the protest leaders decided to march onto the PM house, prompting the government to use force against the protesters for the first time since August 14. According to some sources live rounds were also fired by the police during the crackdown amid excessive tear gas shelling and brutal baton charge[2]. The protesters retaliated with slingshots and wooden sticks. In the end, the police was not able to successfully disperse the crowd. At least three protesters died during the clashes and several were wounded. The only purpose this crackdown served was to further enrage the crowd.

Javed Hashmi left Khan’s side after he announced that PTI will march onto the PM house with PAT. Hashmi views this step as a symbolic rebellion to Democracy. He was also unhappy with Khan’s decision to cooperate with PAT because Qadri doesn’t believe in the democratic ideals. In fact the PAT workers have been vocally calling on the army to intervene. Moreover, he was also aggrieved for not being consulted before Khan took the decision to move forward to the PM house [3].

Hashmi’s reservations certainly have weight. Although abandoning the protesters at the most crucial moment can obviously be seen as a betrayal to the cause, but his apprehension that he might be unknowingly contributing to a possible military takeover has become more realistic now. Most importantly, cooperating with Qadri will come at a high political cost for PTI as his agenda seems to be nothing other than causing chaos to make the situation ripe for the military to intervene. Today PAT workers ransacked the state TV while Khan kept appealing to both the PAT and PTI workers not to enter any state building. Hashmi stated yesterday that if the actions of PTI lead to a coup, they’ll have to spend next 20 years apologizing to the people.

On the other hand, a retreat will render Khan’s position so weak that even his supporters will abandon him. There is no way back once he decides to go forward except at the cost of his political career. So, he should think the decisions through from every possible angle. PTI is now in a very tough situation. Although the statement issued by ISPR after a meeting of corps commanders suggests that army is not in the mood to intervene [4], but the direction in which the crisis is going can create perfect conditions for a coup. Imran Khan is trapped between two very dangerous possibilities. His success depends on whether he will be able to create a third one.

4. ISPR Press Release No. PR184/2014-ISPR