Azadi March: What's Next?

Imran Khan, in tandem with Tahir ul Qadri, has successfully created a political crisis which is forcing the government to reconsider its stance regarding Khan's demands. People have gathered in the capital in large numbers, bringing the city to a stand still. So far, the demands made by PTI seem a bit extreme and unlikely to be accepted by the government, because the foremost demand is the dissolution of the government itself. If PTI is really serious about bringing down the government, and it has not just placed this demand as a bargaining chip, it probably needs to be a lot more proactive to achieve it. 

Bringing down a democratic government, even if it has seized power through electoral rigging, is usually more difficult than bringing down a dictator. Mainly because a democratic government enjoys considerable support among the masses as it is not possible to rig your way to the government without having any popular support at all. Secondly, a dictator resorts to force more easily, while a democratic government has to be pushed to its limits before it decides to start violence. Ultimately, it is the violence of the regime that sparks enough fervor in the protesters to bring it down, but it can also quell the protests. So far, despite the panic Khan has induced in the ruling party, the government has refrained from use of excessive force as much as it could.

Imran Khan has already lost enough time. His absence from the scene of protests has had a negative effect on the morale of the protesters. Besides, the number of protesters will reduce significantly as the week starts tomorrow. The time in which he can make any move towards escalating the situation is till tomorrow morning. Yesterday he hinted at marching towards the Red Zone to increase pressure on the government and the effects were visible. The N-League is in the habit of panicking which makes the effects of Khan’s threats very obvious. The security in Red Zone was reinforced and multiple N-League leaders reacted by warning the protesters of the consequences if they tried to march in that direction.

For the sake of people, neither PTI should try to actually cross the red line nor should the N-League push PTI to make that move. It is very obvious that there is no way PTI could oust N-League from the government without any bloodshed. So, all PTI can do without inciting violence is to use their extreme demands as bargaining chips for their more moderate demands. Imran Khan has made the point. He has told the world that the N-League government has been involved in rigging and its legitimacy is questionable at best. This certainly has affected the reputation and credibility of N-League and its leaders in Pakistan, as well as the world.