Lessons from Iraq

There is a problem in global politics known as the Middle East problem; probably the most complex problem that there is. It all began after the colonial era, when the Western powers started evacuating the Middle East and divided it into nation states with future plans to create hegemony. In the beginning it worked out well but soon it was realized that the borders have been drawn quite randomly. Some people were divided between different states and some states were populated with different people. Everyone knew that the dormant volcano of the Middle East will erupt one day with dire humanitarian consequences. Throughout the last century the world powers kept a lid over the problem by suppressing uprisings with the help of brutal dictators and forging alliances with totalitarian regimes but it was evident that a permanent solution is needed. Some think that the problem was created by the imperialist powers deliberately in order to divide the people of Middle East so that they could be ruled easily. But evidently a stable Middle East is a win win for the World powers as well as the people of the region. The problem only is that to reach that stability, the region will have to go through a period of extreme instability and anarchy, and things could get even worse if the regional powers get drawn into the conflicts. 

Bernard Lewis is a British-American historian who specializes in the political history of the Middle East. In early 90s a plan to reshape the Middle Eastern states emerged and was attributed to him. The plan was to simply redraw the borders according to the ethnic and sectarian demographics of the Middle East. Amazingly, starting with the Arab Spring, the Middle East erupted along the same lines as proposed by the Bernard Lewis plan. The recent advances by Daesh or ISIS (now just IS) have already created the sketch of the Sunni state right in the middle of the map. Iraqi Kurds have also seized the opportunity and Peshmurga (the Kurdish armed force) has taken over Kirkuk after it was abandoned by the Iraqi army. It has been announced that the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is going to hold a referendum to decide whether the Iraqi Kurds want to live with Iraq anymore. The question whether it’s all happening organically or is it being fertilized by the Western powers is largely speculative. Although it is a fact that USA and its allies provided support to the Syrian rebels, many of which later joined the Jihadist militias, especially ISIS. Yet there is no evidence of any direct involvement of the West in the current crisis in Iraq. Besides it was eventually going to happen. If West ever participated directly in creating this chaos, it was about a century ago when they drew the borders contrary to the demographic lines. 

As for Pakistan, the point of concern is its disintegration shown in the Bernard Lewis map. Since Iraq is going through that phase, Pakistan can learn some lessons from it to save itself from a similar fate. The population of Iraq is divided in three major groups. The Shi'ite who dominate the southern Iraq, the Sunnis who dominate the northwestern Iraq and the Kurds who dominate the north eastern regions of the country. Iraq is breaking up along these lines. Pakistan has been going through sectarian tensions for almost thirty years, but that’s not what is going to cause its disintegration. Sectarianism in Pakistan can cause instability and anarchy in the country which can in turn contribute to its disintegration, but it cannot directly cause it, mainly because of two reasons. Firstly, in Pakistan Shi'ite and Sunnis live side by side. Unlike Iraq, sectarian divisions in Pakistan don’t correlate with geopolitical divisions. Secondly, there is no class difference between the two sects. It’s not like Sunnis are generally more prosperous while Shi'ite are being neglected by the state. In Iraq, Sunnis and Shi'ite lived in separate regions and allegedly the current government was ignoring the Sunni population and thus the Sunni dominated areas were reportedly less prosperous than the south. So, it’s not entirely about sectarianism, it is also about class difference. 

However, in the case of Pakistan, a similar picture as that of Iraq can be conceived by just substituting sects with ethnicity. The provinces of Pakistan are clearly divided along ethnic lines and unfortunately there exists a class difference between the provinces. Punjab is considered the most prosperous province while Baluchistan is considered the most neglected one. The situation in Iraq gives the Pakistanis an opportunity to learn from other’s mistakes. It is not practically possible to merge the ethnic demographics of the country. There would be no disintegration if people of all ethnic backgrounds live side by side, instead of living in different parts of the country. But that of course is far from possible. The only option left is to minimize the class difference between the provinces. If the Pakistani politicians are smarter than their Iraqi counterparts, then this should be their top priority.