The Terrorism Cycle

The first American drone hit the tribal areas of Pakistan in 2004, in which 4 to 5 people were killed, almost all of them terrorists. After that the number of drone strikes per year rose constantly, and in 2010 at least 118 drones attacked the tribal areas. Apart from the increment in the number of drone strikes, the number of civilian deaths also elevated. According to an estimate, in 2009 alone, some 700 civilians were killed by American drones. For unknown reasons, the drones constantly lost their accuracy and in each successive strike, they killed more civilians than before.

A very similar trend was seen in the rates of suicide attacks in Pakistan. There were 7 suicide attacks in 2004, and after that, almost in every successive year the number of suicide attacks increased, and in 2009 alone, there were 83 such attacks in Pakistan. Again for some unknown reasons, the suicide attacks, that previously used to kill more civilians and were mostly sectarian in nature, got concentrated on police and security forces of Pakistan.

For a person outside Pakistan these might be separate events, but for a person who is living inside Pakistan and is observing all the events very closely, these events are too much interlinked. It is a cycle, in which all the steps cause the other step and all events are linked to each other. Let’s see the cycle step by step:

Step 1:

More terrorist activity; when terrorist organizations get enough recruits, they start attacking the Pakistani cities.

Step 2:

More drone strikes; US government instantly increases drone attacks in the areas where the terrorists are supposed to be hiding i.e. the tribal areas, assuming that the surge in terrorist activity indicates that the terrorists are growing stronger in their havens.

Step 3:

More civilian casualties; As usual, the drones kill more civilians than terrorists and thus elevate the number of civilian deaths in the tribal areas.

Step 4:

More terrorists; Due to the increasing drone strikes, more and more people lose their loved ones, and thus they join anti government forces to avenge their dead relatives. And this of course leads back to step 1, and in this way the cycle goes on. The cycle can start from step 2 as well, but in the end the results are the same.

Why the terrorists shifted from sectarian attacks to targeted attacks against the Pakistani government and military? The reason is very much clear, these are revengeful attacks. The problem is that this is not only a cycle, it is a snow ball effect as well. Increasing suicide attacks increase the drone strikes and increased number of drone strikes in turn increases the suicide attacks again, and in this way the number of both attacks keeps on increasing. Intentionally or unintentionally, the US government is creating more and more terrorists, and similarly the terrorists are causing more drone attacks. Unfortunately only the people of Pakistan are on the receiving end. The terrorism from both sides has made their life apprehensive.